US tariff impositions – recently voted illegal by the USA Supreme Court – served to dent business confidence across Western Europe, constraining trailer investment. However, the latest forecast from CLEAR International points to a measured recovery in Europe’s heavy trailer sector – but the risk profile remains.
According to Clear International’s February 2026 report, the West European heavy goods trailer market is entering a recovery phase, driven by pent-up demand, easing inflation and improving economic indicators – though the risk of renewed tariff escalation or geopolitical instability remains.
Confidence dented – but not broken
As the report notes, US import tariffs triggered significant uncertainty in 2025, weighing on haulier investment appetite. While the second half of 2025 delivered 8.6% growth compared to the same period in 2024, it was insufficient to offset first-half weakness. Overall demand for 2025 declined by 0.5%.
Growth forecast for 2026
Looking ahead, the report states that trailer demand across Western Europe is forecast to grow by 6% in 2026, with stronger expansion anticipated in 2027 and 2028. After three years of weak new trailer demand between 2023 and 2025, significant pent-up replacement demand has accumulated.
The report highlights several tailwinds:
- Strengthening West European GDP growth in 2027-28.
- Rising investment levels.
- A favourable trailer replacement cycle through to decade-end.
- Continued reductions in inflation and interest rates.
Lower financing costs will make commercial vehicle acquisitions more affordable – a dynamic that resonates strongly in South Africa’s high-interest-rate environment.
Country-level momentum building
All but one Western European country are forecast to record increased trailer registrations in 2026. Spain is the exception, having expanded strongly in 2025 and likely pausing this year, says Clear International.
Demand for road transport in Western Europe – measured in tonne-kilometres – declined by 4.0% in 2023 before recovering modestly by 0.6% in both 2024 and 2025. Stronger growth is expected going forward.
The January 2026 Composite Leading Indicators from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reinforce this outlook. Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain all sit above the 100-trend line – between 101 and 102 – signaling improving economic momentum over the next six months.
However, the report cautions that renewed war or further tariffs remain the principal risks to the forecast.
“Spring is in evidence”
Gary Beecroft, Director of CLEAR International, strikes an optimistic tone: “Now is the winter of our discontent coming to an end. Spring is in evidence and in due course we may even experience glorious summer. Economic growth in the region will remain moderate but positive for the next three years. Interest rates and inflation should continue to fall. Pent-up demand caused by three years of weak trailer sales will boost the recovery. It is possible that many published economic forecasts for Western Europe are too pessimistic.”
The full report outlines when, where and how quickly the trailer market is expected to recover and develop through to 2030, although a cyclical downturn is anticipated around that year.
If Western Europe accelerates as forecast, it could support healthier global supply chains, improved OEM order books and more predictable equipment pricing. Conversely, renewed US tariffs could reintroduce volatility (as could supply chain disruptions).
Editor’s comment: For truck fleet operators the world over, trailer replacement cycles cannot be deferred indefinitely. Pent-up demand eventually asserts itself, whether in Rotterdam, Rio de Janeiro or Richards Bay. If interest rates ease globally and economic confidence strengthens, capital discipline will still be essential. The next upcycle may offer opportunity, but as the tariff saga has shown, geopolitics can disrupt the playing field overnight. Remain cautious and vigilant.
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