As the Middle East crisis escalates, the shockwaves worldwide are being measured in diesel, delivery schedules and daily living costs. For South Africa’s road freight sector – the backbone of the economy – the war in the Middle East is already translating into tangible pressure across supply chains, states industry body SAPICS.

Disruptions to energy markets, shipping routes and logistics insurance are compounding the cost and complexity of moving goods into and across Africa. As these pressures build, businesses will have little choice but to pass costs downstream to consumers, SAPICS stresses.

Diesel: the system’s pressure point
“Supply chains are highly interconnected global systems,” says SAPICS president Thato Moloi. “When geopolitical tensions affect major energy corridors or shipping routes, the consequences travel quickly through logistics networks and ultimately reach businesses and consumers everywhere.”

At the centre of the disruption lies diesel – the lifeblood of freight transport. From trucks and freight rail to port handling equipment and agricultural machinery, the sector remains deeply dependent on stable fuel pricing. Any spike feeds almost immediately into transport costs.

For African economies, where logistics already accounts for a disproportionately high share of final goods pricing, the effect is amplified.

“Higher fuel prices increase the cost of every kilometre travelled by a transporter,” says Moloi. “That cost moves through the entire supply chain and eventually shows up on store shelves.”

Rerouted trade, rising costs
Beyond fuel, the conflict is reshaping global shipping patterns. Carriers are increasingly avoiding high-risk zones, diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope rather than utilising the shorter Trans-Suez route. While safer, this adds both time and cost to already strained global schedules.

“For supply chain managers, longer routes translate into longer lead times, higher fuel consumption and increased freight costs. At the same time, global shipping schedules, which are already under pressure from recent disruptions, could become even less predictable,” Moloi says.

Compounding the issue are additional surcharges linked to “war risks” and “emergency conflicts”, further inflating freight bills.

Insurance shocks ripple downstream
Insurance markets are introducing another layer of volatility. War-risk premiums for vessels operating in affected regions have surged, with marine hull insurance in the Gulf reportedly rising sharply. Insurers are also issuing rapid cancellation notices – sometimes within 48 to 72 hours – to reassess exposure and reprice risk.

“These changes can significantly increase operating costs for shipping companies. And as with fuel and freight costs, those increases ultimately move through supply chains and into the price of goods,” Moloi explains.

The cumulative effect of higher fuel costs, longer shipping routes and rising insurance premiums is broad-based inflationary pressure. From food and consumer goods to construction materials and industrial inputs, few sectors remain insulated. Economists are already cautioning that anticipated interest rate cuts in South Africa could be delayed as oil-driven inflation filters through the economy.

From efficiency to resilience
“The war in Iran highlights a growing reality for supply chain professionals: disruption is no longer the exception, it is the norm,” Moloi states. “Over the past five years alone, supply chains have faced pandemic aftershocks, geopolitical conflict, climate events, port congestion, skills shortages and cost volatility.

“The current Middle East conflict is another reminder that global logistics networks operate in an increasingly volatile environment. As a result, companies are shifting their approach to supply chain management.

“Businesses are moving away from a narrow focus on cost efficiency toward building more resilient supply chains. This includes diversifying suppliers, building buffer stock for critical goods, investing in supply chain visibility technologies and closely monitoring geopolitical risks that could disrupt transport corridors.

“Events like this show why supply chain management has become such a strategic function in modern organisations,” Moloi says.

“The decisions made by supply chain managers determine how effectively businesses navigate uncertainty and how well they protect both customers and the broader economy from ongoing global disruptions.

“Supply chain leaders have been operating in what many describe as a state of ‘permacrisis’ for years. The organisations that have responded by redesigning their supply chains to absorb disruption and that have invested in skilled, knowledgeable, suitably qualified supply chain professionals, will be best placed to weather the impacts of the war in Iran,” he concludes.

Editor’s comment: South Africa’s road freight economy has long operated at the mercy of global shocks, but the current escalation underscores a harder truth: energy security and logistics resilience are now inseparable. With diesel still firmly entrenched as the sector’s primary energy source, any instability in oil markets hits road transport first and hardest.

While diversification and digitisation offer buffers, the industry remains exposed. Until meaningful progress is made on alternative fuels, infrastructure efficiency and regional supply chain integration, South African operators will continue to navigate a world where distant conflicts are felt most acutely at the fuel pump – and ultimately, at the till.

Click on graphic to enlarge.