While South Africa struggles to lift itself up from the nine wasted years under the Zuma administration, it is interesting to note that since the last report published by Clear International on the West European trailer market in March, several West European economies have had their forecasts for 2019/20 economic growth downgraded yet again.
As a consequence, the forecast of a slowdown in demand for trailers in the region during 2019 is likely to prove correct. In the first five months of this year, trailer demand has fallen by an estimated 2% and a 10% fall is forecast for the year.
Several large West European countries did see some growth in the first quarter of 2019, e.g. Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. With the exception of France, the amount of growth was quite small and is expected to turn into a reduction of trailer demand in the second quarter. Spain, Italy, Austria and Denmark all had falls in trailer demand in the first quarter of the year.
Clear has forecast a cyclical slowdown – but not a recession – in European economies for some years. The catch up demand that has been pushing the trailer market is now over. The trailer parc is fully replenished despite the fact that road transport demand has yet to return to 2006 levels. This was pre-Global Financial Crisis where the greedy banks caused havoc. Furthermore, it is ten years since the decimation of the trailer market in 2009 and the market has never gone ten years without a slowdown.
In addition, trailer demand reached a very high level in 2018, rivalled only by 2007 which had an unnaturally high level of trailer sales largely brought on by the number of countries that joined the EU in 2004-07. All these factors point to a fall in demand for new trailers in 2019. Fortunately for the industry, the fall will be relatively modest and short-lived.
So should the industry be panicking over the forecast fall in the market asks Clear? Arguably not. From 2017-21, trailer registrations are forecast to be higher than any five year period in history, even though that will include 2019 when demand is forecast weaker. The previous record breaking five year period was from 2004-08.
Production of trailers was at the second highest level on record in 2018 (though well short of the 2007 figure). The industry is therefore achieving both high levels of output and relative stability in what is traditionally a volatile sector of the vehicle market. The trailer parc (fleet size) will set a new record level every year to 2023 – another reason why increased demand for new trailers is unlikely in 2019.
Business confidence is falling in 2019 and forecast growth levels for both GDP and business investment are being cut across the board. But, according to the report, this should be expected at this stage of the economic cycle.
Editor’s Footnote: CLEAR International is a consulting group working with companies active in automotive and transport markets. Projects focus on the future demand for products as a result of changes in technology, markets, business processes and legislation. Clients include component manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers, investment banks, management consultants, materials producers and government bodies. In Europe, 77% of all goods are moved by road and most of that proportion is transported in a trailer.
Truck traffic in Europe is massive
Trailer demand may have fallen in the first five months of this year but with 77% of all goods in Europe moved by road – most if which is transported in a trailer – the truck traffic is still awesome. Check this out…